What is the future of 1/87th models?

[Lee]

Looking back 40 years we can see very simple and plain models coming onto the market like Viking with their one piece body castings. Today the average model body is made of many different pieces with seperate head and tail lights, clear windows, interiors, and sometimes moving parts. We can also see inroads in motorizing and lighting that was not available back then. What will we see in the next 40 years? Will the toy market prevail or is there going to still be a market for highly scaled model vehicles? Are the the doors, hoods and trunks going to open with scale hinges? Will the windows roll down? It is anyones guess at this point in time what the future holds but things done now just were not available back when. The models today are a work of art. Imagine what the models of tomorrow are going to be like.

[Lee]

With the equipment being developed that I see today, I can see a day in the future where one will be able to go on line and order a model of their choice in the scale of their choice. It will be made to exact detail out of materials that will look like if not be like the real thing. The big question would be the cost of a one of a kind model produced in this manner.
In the past we have seen new products such as television start out with very high prices. Because of manufacturing methods being improved, the cost has come down and the quality gone up. Once the ablility to produce from plans is really perfected and the speed of production increased, I would forsee the cost of a one of a kind model being within reason.
Is this to be the next generation of model manufacturing?

[stanhas87]

Dear Sirs:

The manufacturing resources improved dramatically over the past twenty years.However,I agree with Model Auto Review about the overall fate of the hobby: it is supported by people who were born at least two generations ago.The newer generation does not care much about the hobby.I mean,there are some exceptions,but,in general,new blood at our hobby is diminishing.Probably it will turn around,but realistically,I do not see in decrease in popularity of the video games around the new ones ( and I even do not care about the latter(.
Toy shows are going under as well.The one that I used to go to-George's show,where one could buy new or old toys;once a month at times-closed its doors in 2002.In the last five years,the attendance was declining or if it was the case,mostly non-young individuals were the one who came in.The show coordinator cited eBay as the cause of the downfall of this event.

On the manufacturing issue,true,things are getting better and models very realistic no matter its size.I would quote Rod Ward-Model Auto review's publisher-that we need to add ne blood to the hobby.

[kl993]

having just returned from a 10 day trip to hong kong, i was very surprised at the limited interest in 1/87th models. i was able to visit my usual stops and found that many of the stores either didn't carry 1/87th vehicles anymore, or they had an assortment of herpa and wiking left over from the late 90's. perhaps i missed out on the better shops, but the availability wasn't there. i did notice that one model shop known for carrying a wide selection of 1/87th cars and even 1/43rd models had a huge selection of the 1/400 and 1/500 herpa commercial aircraft models.

i even noticed this on a recent business trip to munich. i chatted with a hobby shop owner and he was telling me that the interest in 1/87th vehicles was declining. i hope this wasn't the case throughout the rest of germany, but it did appear to be the situation with this store owner.

in my mind, attracting new blood will be difficult as long as the toy manufacturers of the larger scale keep offering the cars that the kids of today find interesting - the detailing is improving, while the sales prices are far more attractive than 1/87th vehicles.

perhaps, stealing a page of the marketing book from the toy makers is a place to start - co-op marketing ties with video games and other brands, thematic packaging ala johnny lightning are few things that come to mind.

let's put our heads together and see what we, as a community, can brainstorm to attract a new crowd.

[stanhas87]

Dear kl993:

A good point about Playing Mantis/Johnny Lightning:they revolutionized 1/64 scale and rumor has that Mattel got Matchbox because they were affraid of the popularity-along with Maisto.
I agree that 1/87 can learn a lot from the two from diversifying their general line up and offer the vehicles that the young collector wants.Johnny Lightning Import cars are a runway sucess along with their Muscle Cars Usa series.Hence,this can be used as a feedback.
What I said above also apply for toy cars.The Video Games seem to be replacing these either.
Another thing that I heard is that 1/87 is too small for the children and some adults use that argument to pass these away.I hope that I am wrong at all counts.

[BillC]

From an American point of view:

Problem No. 1: Different hobbies are in ascendancy. Model railroading and plastic kits are down; Radio-control and diecast toys are up. A few years ago, it was the other way round. Overall, the toy market is down, but a lot of that is due to changing demographics. The baby boomers, a huge group, are in their prime hobby years; the coming generation of potential modelers is smaller. Computers, video games and other activities have made inroads on leisure time, but consigning our hobby to oblivion because of them is a mistake. People said television would kill hobbies, too.

Problem No. 2: Shrinking exposure. Shifts in hobby tastes mean retailers devote space to what they perceive to be hot; that only makes sense. Plus, it’s unlikely we’ll see mass-market hobby centers stock a variety of models until they are convinced there’s a market. Incidentally, the growing dominance of a handful of mega-retailers is hurting the toy industry as a whole. The smaller toyshops where one might have once found Wiking models (in fact, such a shop is where I bought my first Anguplas and Roco models many years ago) are going away, unable to compete with “Tickle Me Elmo” at Wal-Mart. Proof of this is everywhere: FAO Schwarz, one of America’s legendary toy stores, is being liquidated and only the original New York City store will be retained. Or look at Brio: After two years of losses, production staff was cut almost 50% and some production is being outsourced to China. In essence, Wal-Mart, Target and Toys ‘R Us are defining the American toy market. The big hobby merchandisers, like Michaels and Hobby Lobby, have tiny model sections and a pitiful selection. With the closing of E-R Models, we just lost one of our major importers/distributors.

Problem No. 3: We preach to the chorus and never leave the church to evangelize. Then we wring our hands as the congregation dies off and there are few new members. I am not talking about reaching out to the kids; by their nature, the models we like aren't suitable for children. Not only because of the potential dangers they might present, but because they aren't toys that can handle a child's handling. But the pleasures of Hot Wheels or Siku models can mature to an enjoyment of true scale models in miniature if more people know they are out there.

In 2001, I helped out in the Ravensburger-F.X. Schmid booth at the Chicago International Hobby Expo on one of the public days. Ravensburger had the only Wiking display and it was an old (and damaged) retail rack that wasn't even stocked with the latest models. The fellow running the booth was a really great guy who knew lots about the company's main line of puzzles and such, but literally nothing about Wiking models.

A number of men with children came by the booth as they wandered through the exhibits. Of course, the children were enchanted, but a number of the men were also interested and wanted to know where they could get the models because they had never seen them. I took over and handed out catalogs and Siku pens and reeled off as many online sources as I could. We couldn't sell anything at the show, but I thought that if we had any brains at all, every adult who expressed interest would have walked out with a free Wiking model. Cost? Maybe a couple of hundred bucks.

The other thing we should have done is prepared a list of every hobby shop in the greater Chicago area that sold Wiking models. Yes, this was primarily a trade show, but when you’re open to the public, you should be ready for them.

Problem No. 4: The hobby has failed to adapt and address the needs and desires of new markets. Not long ago, a friend of mine was building a 1/87-scale model of an ExxonMobil rail facility. He wanted to add scale models of the vehicles owned by the people who work there and contacted me. Out of the list, which included fairly common vehicles, I was able to supply a single model. I am not blaming the German model companies; we have companies in the U.S. capable of making models. On the other hand, I have had more than one German manufacturer ask me how to penetrate the U.S. market. The answer is simple: make models of American vehicles and attend American hobby shows. Cut your distributors some slack for advertising your products; discount an invoice or add a similar incentive. And it’s not just America; try making some models of British vehicles. Not only will the English thank you, a huge number of English cars were sold in the U.S. in the 1950s and 1960s. Make a Saab; stun the French and make a Panhard. The Italians have been known for some interesting cars; ask Audi about making a Murciélago. Yes, other scales are more popular in those countries, but why cut yourself off from any reasonable source of sales?

A friend who is very knowledgeable about the industry thinks it’s becoming saturated, even in Germany. I don’t agree. I think the problem is that too few people know what is already out there and there is too little fresh variety to keep those of us who do know coming back. Part of this we, as hobby fans, can change. The rest, we can do our best to influence.

In answer to Lee's original question, in forty years, it would be nice to see everything from inexpensive, easy-to-assemble kits to incredible models with lights, motors and operating doors and such. But most important, it would be nice to see a hobby that has learned to survive.

[Christian]

I think we have a new editorial. Bill?

[cfesmire]

I'd like to express a little more optimistic attitude towards the future of 1-87 scale. I believe the interest today in 'smaller is better' seems to be the future of almost everything. We see research in nanothechnology giving us the equivalent of a city on the head of a pin in chip developement. With regard to hobby vehicles, I have seen r/c vehicles and slot cars in our scale and virtually all of the folks involved are quite young in fact. One thing my years have taught me is that everything goes in cycles. The stock market looks like it will come tumbling down into Wall St. sometimes but eventually it swings around and rebounds even higher than before. So chin up fellows, it may take some time but we that hang in when things get tough, will be rewarded with 1-87 vehicles that we never dreamed possible someday.

[BillC]

Christian said:

I think we have a new editorial. Bill?

Okay by me. Lee asked me if I would write one, and I guess I did.

Bill C.

[BillC]

cfesmire said:

I'd like to express a little more optimistic attitude towards the future of 1-87 scale. I believe the interest today in 'smaller is better' seems to be the future of almost everything. We see research in nanothechnology giving us the equivalent of a city on the head of a pin in chip developement. With regard to hobby vehicles, I have seen r/c vehicles and slot cars in our scale and virtually all of the folks involved are quite young in fact. One thing my years have taught me is that everything goes in cycles. The stock market looks like it will come tumbling down into Wall St. sometimes but eventually it swings around and rebounds even higher than before. So chin up fellows, it may take some time but we that hang in when things get tough, will be rewarded with 1-87 vehicles that we never dreamed possible someday.

There you go, Chester! That's the spirit.

Ten years ago, model railroading was riding pretty high; readership of Model Railroader magazine was at an all-time high and growth was good. Today, it's down and the sky is falling. Or is it?

As with any hobby, there will be some people who dabble in it and leave, some who will get involved for a while and leave, and some who will fall in love forever and worry about where the next generation of fanatics will come from. You've got to get the word out to as many as you can in the first group to wind up with a decent number in the last one.

[stanhas87]

Dear Sirs:

I agree with Bill's remarks and he put it out in a more extensive way as Model Auto Review was doing in the past five years.Ron Ward,the magazine editor,when this decade opened,stated the most manufacturer will offer very few models because the past decade a good amount of this came around but the number of costumers were shrinking.
I also observed what happened with one of our club members at the Model Vehicles Unlimited: while he attended the show with a table of his models,his kids would help him,but at their spare time they would go to the lounge in order to play video games.Later,his kids would not come with him to our model swap meets.Very few-if any-of the members kids would care about models and even less about 1/87.
I understand that the diecast industry is a billion dollar business and at all they would build only what perceive is hot.If there is a saturation,I believe that is of Camaros,Corvettes,Mustangs and Viper models;as I was explained,these are good sellers and would make money for the less popular models.As I already stated,some companies used models that no one manufactured before in order to penetrate a very competitive market.
On the past twenty years,I noticed that several of the small hobby or toy shops disappeared.This way,as Bill stated,is up to the big retailers to define what toy collecting is and to my view,is not that good.I still remember about the 'tickle me elmo' craze and how people would pay $1000 for these.
I was informed by one of the club members form MVU that Rietze did not wanted to penetrate the American market because it disliked its distribuitors.He tried to talk to the company's CEO about this,but the answer would be always a redudant 'no'.Is a shock to me to hear that 'E-R' is gone;it is a major one after Franklin Mint.That means that the writing is at the wall.
In all,if I want to be optimistic about it,I would say the hobby will rebound and things will be fine.It will exist,but as a very faint operation such as coin and stamps.I quote Ron Ward again by stating that he-and me-are open to any suggestions about what can be done to give interest to the young people about this hobby.But frankly I do not see how.I mean,all advertising is good but it wil help to boost the ineterst on modeling? To be seen.

[BillC]

Franklin Mint collapsed under its own business model. Lots of advertising paid for by subscriptions for very expensive models that weren't significantly better than models costing a fraction as much. In addition, why sign up for a subscription when you can trot down to Wal-Mart and buy what you want off the shelf? When the competition got hot, Franklin Mint couldn't make a good business case for staying in the market.

E-R Models is closing for two reasons: First, and most important, the CEO's wife and business partner is very ill. Second, the current economy and currency exchange turmoil made it difficult to make a dependable profit. So the company founder decided to retire and spend more time with his wife. E-R Models did not go bankrupt.

Lothar Rietze has his reasons for not entering the U.S. market directly, but that hasn't stopped him from working out an arrangement with Rainer Noch to do the U.S. distribution for him.

With apologies to some of the younger members of the forum, it is not suprising that kids aren't interested. It's the same with many hobbies, especially those that require some knowledge and skill. Kids will start out enjoying helping Dad, then they will get bored, then they will get embarrassed, then they will develop other interests and we will moan about their loss.

Then they will grow up, then they will get married, settle down and hopefully have a good enough job to give them some discretionary income. Then some of them will remember those fun Saturdays with dad, or see a model, or happen on an exhibit at a shopping center or museum. Then we will have fresh faces at the hobby shows.

Your real demographic for most hobbies like ours is middle-aged men (this may not be politically correct, but it happens to be true). This means there will always be a gap between one generation of fans and the next.

The one figure I have yet to see is a meaningful decline in the fascination young boys have for small cars. By meaningful decline, I am talking about percentage of participants in a given generation. The continuing popularity of Hot Wheels, Matchbox, Racing Champions, Ertl and the rest are a positive indication of a market for 1/87 scale models in the future. The growth of our segment, as I mentioned earlier, depends on adapting to changes in the market and effectively communicating the existence of the products.

Will advertising help in the U.S.? Who knows? No one has ever tried to do a consistent campaign. How many MVU meets are listed with Scale Auto Enthusiast or FineScale Modeler? Anyone ever sent a press release to the local TV stations or newspapers? Bought an ad where someone might see it?

It's not just advertising; there are other avenues. I have had pleasant chats with several editors of model magazines. Every one of them said they would welcome articles about 1 /87 scale model vehicles. To date, they have not been flooded with submissions. I now write a monthy review and a quarterly column devoted to vehicles for a model railroad publication, but I am the only one doing this in the U.S., as far as I know.

Then there is the more personal approach: invite a friend to come with you. I know that sounds crazy, as we are all just grown men playing with toys, but it might work. If nothing else, it might show your friend you aren't the only one on the lunatic fringe.

The easier you make it for people to be interested, the more people will be interested.

Next, a reality check: Do you have any idea what it costs to license NASCAR? Or why the same basic car is $3.00 at Wal-Mart and free inside Cheerios? And look at what the various companies are doing to compete: pieces of actual cars and other memorabilia; all sorts of glitzy add-ons. Johnny Lightning's Monopoly series with the extra playing-piece-size model.

And do we really want the Scooby-Doo BMW as a PC model from Herpa?

If we want our manufacturers to emulate someone, how about Brooklin? Perhaps not in such limited production numbers, but certainly in variety.

[stanhas87]

Dear Sirs:

That was the fact the escaped from my mind:Ron Ward stated that our hobby is supported by...............well,older individuals who grew up when this hobby reached the sky.
MVU sponsors two model swap meets yearly (third weeks from February and September) and can be reached at www.modelvehiclesunlimited.org .One of their shows was posted at this site.
My feelings about the hobby are still on hope-that it will manage to survive.Besides that,it is a 'to be seen' reality.And by all means,I also like to see most of the Rietze brands in our shores.

[Marc S.]

Looking at how far we have come in just 40 years, I am confident to see the hobby surviving another four decades - and more. Being in the (high) twenties myself, I do not think we are lacking fresh blood (I have some friends who do not think I am totally mad); and I agree with Bill C. that playing with Dad's model railroad and Wiking models certainly helps to get (back) to 1/87th scale models one day.

What I perceive is a hobby very much focused on Germany. Different countries prefer different scales, with 1/43rd and probably 1/18th being international collectors scales. Everything else appears to more more or less a niche - large niches with 1/32nd scale farm or 1/50th scale construction equipment, but niches nonetheless.

Although it is rather restricted to Germany, our 1/87th scale niche is kept alive by promotional models. These aren't just give-aways, but make for huge sales. Which is why I strongly believe there will be 1/87th scale models in the future. After all, there are enough people to buy expensive collector's items from the car manufacturers. Proof enough that here are collectors and that there is disposable income even in economically hard times. So, we need to convince the manufacturers that investment in promotional models pays off and spread the word that there is a big market for 1/87th scale models.

Bill, you asked for variety to make those in the know come back. But there is variety! Herpa has their current construction equipment, NZG makes historic pieces, Wiking does the farming range, Brekina the classics, Rietze buses, Busch North-American and European icons. Of course there could be more, and we are accustomed to having more - more passenger cars, that is. In this respect, Chester's theory of cycles has its charmes - the good times might come back.

Marc

[cfesmire]

I have two grown sons that actually revived my interest in the hobby when they were young. Today, they are working on advancement in their occupations, starting their own families and generally being busy with the goings-on of being a young adult which include much more vigorous activity than I care to participate in any more (hence one of the reasons why middle age men get into our rather sendintary hobby). I am fascinated, however in the look on their faces when I produce something new. I am sure at least one of them will eventually get back into the hobby, perhaps after they have the second or third knee operation.
I also would like to share with all, a little practice I have taken with a few of my customers from my regular buiness. In getting to know these folks, I find a "motor head" every once in a while. I have discovered what they like most in a vehicle, and have to the best of my abilities, reproduced that vehicle in 1-87 and presented it to them in the form of appreciation for their business. I already have one fellow going to websites I recommended to him and visiting hobby shops as well. Perhaps a new lunatic to our hobby? I hope so.